Tuesday, April 5, 2011

The budget crisis.

The budget crisis.

Paul Ryan has figured out how to solve the budget crisis. He figured it out and sent it up, and it's not acceptable to the other party and he knows and doesn't care. He has decided to go ahead and make the hard decisions that will force America to balance her books, and then blame Obama for disagreeing with some of those hard decisions. Ok, that's why the Tea Party gained some power. (Would it be rude to remind people that they only gained some power, and were solidly defeated in many elections?) So I can sympathize with Mr. Ryan, and Eric Cantor, who believe that it is their job to fix the deficit. They even know how to do it, by gutting the programs that Democrats like.

They could save billions by pulling the military out of Europe or Japan. We just represent symbolic partnerships there. The initial invasion of Iraq had the 3rd Infantry Division from Georgia while leaving the 1st back in Germany; we don't need military might all over the world. We could legalize, and tax the hell out of, the milder recreational narcotics. I say this as a man who never had any interest in even trying a joint during college, although I certainly had friends who did. I say this as a pragmatist who would rather see pot become an economic asset than remain a drain on government resources in both law enforcement and incarceration. We could place protective tariffs on imports, although I realize that's a double edged sword. Or we could drastically cut benefits in Medicaid, future benefits in Medicare, and save literally dozens of dollars by eliminating NPR. (Ok, the NPR budget is more than dozens of dollars. But as a percentage of the budget there are a lot of zeroes after the decimal point and before an actual number. The percentage of my meager enlisted pay that it represents would be, let me get my calculator, well over two cents.)

Ok, so what's the danger? What is my biggest fear, don't I want a balanced budget? Wouldn't I like to see the federal debt reduced? Of course I would. In the long term I demand it. How would we do this? Well, austerity measures like Paul Ryan proposes have already been introduced in Europe's more conservative countries, as well as states like Texas. Should we check on them? Britain tackled its deficit issues as soon as their stimulus programs had worked, and fixed the economy. Their fragile economic recovery was greatly helped by the elimination of public sector jobs and the removal of millions of dollars of government spending in the economy. I'm sorry, that doesn't sound logical. Oh, I meant the economic recovery stalled and things like unemployment are back up. My mistake, I'll try not to repeat it with stateside conservative economic miracle, Texas. After years of very, very Republican leadership Texas had cut its government down to as small as possible, and dropped taxes to the lowest levels imaginable. Good job Texas, you must be plugging along smoothly! Oh, last month Texas had to fire a bunch of cops and teachers, and raid its rainy day fund, in order to prevent bankruptcy. Oh, and by prevent I mean "delay until August." I'm sure they'll figure something out.

Ok, so austerity measures are a likely, nothing is ever certain, but likely way to head to the double dip recession. (Incidentally the same thing happened when Republicans took over Congress in the late 30s. That was the end of the New Deal, and also the end of unprecedented economic growth. Wikipedia!) So how, then, should we balance the budget? Well, some things are simple. Legalizing pot really would help, just like the repeal of prohibition helped end the Great Depression. Yes, really, read some history! I sincerely loved being stationed in Germany, but we don't need any permanent bases there. The Cold War is over folks. The same applies to Japan, although I hesitate to include Korea. I'm pragmatic. But how else? These are good ideas, but what about long term ideas? Ok, here's where things get a little dicey.

End farm subsidies, especially for ethanol. Ethanol takes almost as much energy to make from corn as it produces, and once it gets to the pump it loses out to gas. And why are we subsidizing farmers? They enjoy a higher median income and standard of living than the rest of America, why are taxpayers adding to it?

Get rid of the middle man and have the government make college student loans directly. Why assume all of the risk and none of the profit? Why let student lenders make millions in risk free profit? That leads me to education.

Ok hear me out. We need to spend some money, quite a bit, for maybe five to ten years before we see it pay back. Think about it like an IRA, you never see that money until years down the road, but then you'll be glad you have it. Education for the masses. Serious investment in education at all levels is what propelled America to become the world's pre-eminent power in every way. The GI bill after WWII created an enormous body of college educated taxpayers. People with college educations tend to make significantly more money, and pay more taxes. (This last part might not be true in Texas.) Investment is the name of the game here.

If we worry about a debt crisis that will overwhelm us in 20 years, then let's take some baby steps now toward slowing that problem, by educating a work force that will earn enough to end the problem. The middle class is currently squeezed, hard, when it comes time to send kids to college. I'm pretty solidly in that bracket, and with 13 and 16 years respectively to save enough for my kids' tuition, I can say with all certainty that it won't happen. No chance. My kids will, however, go to college on my post 9/11 GI Bill. Another military benefit. But if you aren't military, and you are in my tax bracket, you earn too much to get your kids a Pell Grant, but not nearly enough to pay for school. If the government issues student loans at ridiculously low rates, if it invests heavily in affordable public universities and tech schools, if it makes it possible for kids with not enough money to make a decent living at a skilled job, it will reap the benefits in markedly higher tax revenues for decades to come. Oh, and it might help to reduce poverty and racial inequality, if you're into that sort of thing.

Thanks for reading.

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