Monday, April 4, 2011

Opinion polls.

"Excuse me, could you answer some questions? In your opinion, does 2+2 really equal 4?"

Opinion polls are dangerous. I have a co-worker who took statistics years ago, and is fond of reminding people that there are three levels to lies. Lies, damn lies, and statistics. I frequently debunk forwarded emails from friends and relatives by going straight to the source of a poll or examining, closely, how a question was phrased. 80% of Americans responded to a poll by saying that Obama had no legal right to be President? Wow, that's stunning, who did the poll? Ok, a polling agency named after the guy who owns it, what else does he do? He hosts a conservative talk show in Toledo. The poll is listeners calling into a radio show. Ok, that's hardly scientific, it's probably a good sampling of the most biased and paranoid conservative voters out there. So this qualifies as a statistical lie.

Which brings me to my next point. A poll about facts isn't a poll of people's legitimate opinions, it's finding out what percentage of America is failing the test of life. "Could you answer a few questions" is the American media equivalent to a high school civics pop quiz, and our populace is failing. Not only failing but being deluded into thinking at their incorrect knowledge is a legitimate opinion. Opinion polls on Obama's Presidential legitimacy are only legitimate if you poll legal experts who have seen the necessary documentation. And since the (conservative leaning) Supreme Court has upheld Obama's presidency, I think we know how that poll would turn out. My opinion on global warming? Not legitimate unless I do research and base it on scientific findings from other people. Even though we covered it in my college chemistry class, I am not an expert.

So as you get stuck in debates with co-workers, friends and well intentioned relatives who want to save you from the creeping evil that they truly envision Liberalism to be, I'll try to give you some ammo to shoot their argument full of holes with. Be calm, don't take it personally.

Oh, and cite your sources. They hate that.

Than for reading.

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